European Bunker Markets in 25/26: Consolidation, Capacity, and Change

2025 was a defining year for Bunker One Europe, marked by a clear focus on consolidation, scale, and readiness for change. Against a backdrop of evolving market conditions and accelerating sustainability requirements, the organization focused on strengthening its foundation - ensuring that growth, flexibility, and innovation could be delivered consistently across Northern Europe.

Three themes stood out:

• Continued consolidation of the organization

• The chartering of larger tonnage, most notably MT Sagafjord

• The rapid integration of new fuels into daily operations

Together, these developments reinforced Bunker One Europe’s ability to turn complexity into clarity while remaining commercially agile.

Operational Resilience Across Northern Europe

Operating conditions can change quickly across Northern Europe. Bunker One Europe is structured to respond immediately when they do.

A key strength is the cross-border delivery capability. With operations spanning Denmark, Sweden, Germany, UK and surrounding markets, deliveries can be shifted between ports with minimal effort. This flexibility allows Bunker One Europe to adapt quickly to disruptions - whether operational, logistical, or external, and maintain reliable supply.

Market Developments: Consolidation and Larger Tonnage

Across Sweden, Denmark, Germany, and the UK, 2025 continued to reflect a trend toward market consolidation. For Bunker One Europe, this reinforced the importance of scale, integrated operations, and strong logistics control.

At the same time, customer demand increasingly pointed toward larger tonnage and higher-capacity solutions, both to improve efficiency and to support evolving fuel strategies.

MT Sagafjord: Increased Capacity and Scale

The chartering of MT Sagafjord was a strategic step to increase cargo capacity and support larger volumes.

With its larger size, the vessel strengthens Bunker One Europe’s ability to handle higher throughput and serve customers more efficiently. At the same time, it provides a robust platform capable of supporting both conventional and alternative fuels, aligning capacity today with future fuel requirements.

New Fuels & Sustainability: From Concept to Daily Operations

2025 marked a turning point in Bunker One Europe’s New Fuels journey. Biofuels became an integral part of daily operations, with demand increasing steadily month by month.

During parts of 2025, our bunker tanker MT Amak Swan operated on B30 MGO and B100 biofuel. As MT Amak Swan is below 5,000 GT and therefore not subject to FuelEU Maritime requirements, this decision was driven by internal ESG agenda. While volumes were modest, the initiative demonstrates Bunker One Europe’s commitment to actively participating in the green transition.

Significant progress was made by:

• Optimizing logistics and shortening lead times from enquiry to supply

• Supplying biofuels by both barge and truck, depending on customer needs

• Embedding low-carbon fuels into routine bunker operations rather than treating them as niche products

Customer Demand

Within Scandinavia and Northern Europe, the Ferry and RoRo segment clearly led the transition. Operating primarily on intra-EU routes with high fuel consumption, these customers face direct pressure to meet FuelEU Maritime GHG intensity targets, making low-carbon fuels a commercial necessity rather than a future ambition.

Innovation, Trials, and Alternative Fuel Development

In parallel with scaling biofuel supply, Bunker One Europe invested significant resources in identifying more economically viable alternatives to standard EN14214 FAME products.

Large marine diesel engines are typically designed for heavy residual fuels, while EN14214 was developed primarily for road transport engines. To reduce the cost of low-carbon compliance, Bunker One Europe explored options such as:

• FAME distillation bottoms

• Recycled Carbon Fuels

While confident that EN14214 will remain an essential fuel for shipping, the focus remains on expanding the solution set, balancing technical compatibility, regulatory acceptance, and commercial viability.

Outlook 2026: Scaling Alternative Fuels with Agility

Fuel Priorities

Looking ahead to 2026, demand for biofuels and LNG/bio-methane is expected to remain strong as shipowners seek to meet FuelEU Maritime GHG intensity requirements. At the same time, interest in bio-and e-methanol continues to grow.

Bunker One Europe has, over several years, built the operational capability to supply methanol by both barge and truck. The primary obstacle to wider adoption remains the price gap between low-carbon methanol and biofuels, which continues to influence customer decision-making.

Infrastructure and Partnerships

Rather than waiting for future infrastructure, Bunker One Europe has positioned itself one step ahead of the curve by:

• Leveraging existing biofuel and methanol infrastructure

• Building strong partnerships with fuel suppliers

• Maintaining an agile operational setup that can adapt quickly as demand evolves

As volumes grow, infrastructure will be adapted in line with market needs — ensuring scalability without sacrificing reliability.

Regulation as a Market Driver in 2026

From 1 January 2026, EU ETS will move to 100% implementation, significantly increasing emission compliance costs for shipowners.

With current EUA prices above USD 100/mt:

• HSFO users face roughly a 100% increase in effective fuel costs

• MGO users face an increase of approximately 50%

These economics are expected to accelerate interest in biofuels, as EU ETS costs are incorporated into overall fuel decision making.

At the same time, FuelEU Maritime compliance mechanisms are expected to mature. A more transparent pooling market will likely emerge, allowing over achievers to monetize surplus compliance and enabling others to manage shortfalls more efficiently. As with all new market mechanisms, the first phase is the most challenging — but clarity is expected to improve rapidly.

Ready for What Comes Next

The strategic choices made in 2025 - consolidation, larger tonnage, and the operational integration of new fuels, have positioned Bunker One Europe to meet 2026 with confidence. Agility remains the guiding principle: anticipating change, adapting quickly, and continuing to turn complexity into clarity for customers across Northern Europe.